The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society
March 15, 2012
In his debut, software entrepreneur and former management consultant Manzi provides a critique of using apparently scientific methods for social engineering. Because societies are much more complex than the harder sciences like physics and biology, the author believes that attempts to apply the reductionist methodology will be doomed to failure. He writes that skepticism should be the order of the day in considering claims for the efficacy of new programs that ostensibly need scientific testing for validation. Manzi contrasts the application of the methods of the controlled experiment from the biological sciences with efforts to apply random-testing methods to criminal-justice, education and social-welfare programs. The author argues that the ultimate decisions on the application of such methods are "outside of science"--they are political and depend on answers to the question of "what kind of society we want to build." Manzi recommends grasping the bull by the horns, as President Clinton did when he took on the question of welfare reform, and that responsibility be taken for (possibly unpopular) political decisions that will result in action, without sheltering behind apparently scientific studies to accurately predict the success or failure of social programs once they are implemented. What is done can always be modified if it doesn't work out right. The areas in need of the most urgent action, writes the author, are education, Social Security and Medicare. A thoroughly argued, powerful study based on principles independent of the author's own conservative-libertarian views.
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May 1, 2012
The thesis of software entrepreneur Manzi's first book is that the application of controlled experiments in social and economic spheres can ultimately lead to improved decision making. He examines various entities, from community policing to the Head Start program, and provides reasons for their success or failure. He argues that, unlike in hard sciences such as physics, small-scale testing in the social sciences often produces results that are not repeatable. Instead, large-scale testing must occur before sweeping program changes are initiated. This approach has already been adopted by Manzi's own software company, Applied Predictive Technologies, which generates valuable information by applying "randomized data experiments in certain narrowly defined business contexts." If social scientists entrusted with informing policymakers utilize more experiments, Manzi argues, the policies they create will be more effective over the long term. Simply put, adopting a trial-and-error methodology can help businesses, policymakers, and society as a whole. VERDICT Backed by numerous pertinent examples, Manzi's arguments are convincing. Recommended for anyone interested in policymaking or in how businesses make decisions.--Poppy Johnson-Renvall, Central New Mexico Community Coll. Lib., Albuquerque
Copyright 2012 Library Journal, LLC Used with permission.
April 15, 2012
Manzi, founder of an applied artificial-intelligence software company, explains how the methods of science can be applied to social and economic policy. The author believes by more widely applying the commercial techniques of radically scaling up the rate of experimentation, we can do better than we are now: somewhat improve the rate of development of social science; somewhat improve our decisions about what social programs we choose to implement; and somewhat improve our overall political economy. In part I, he offers his view of the centrality of experiments to scientific knowledge and uses these concepts in part II to describe the limitations of our current social science. Part III reveals his practical implications for political action. Manzi concludes with ideas on how to change and modernize our government structures in three areas: decentralization and experimentation, human capital, and the welfare state. This challenging book highlights the astounding advances in science and technology that have started to be used in social-program evaluations.(Reprinted with permission of Booklist, copyright 2012, American Library Association.)